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The #Bitcoin ETFs have already accumulated 936,830 #BTC!

Will this surpass 1,000,000 BTC before 2025?

Let me know pic.twitter.com/UojJpJlC4P

— Bitcoin Magazine Pro (@BitcoinMagPro) December 16, 2024

The Significance of the 1 Million BTC Mark

Crossing the 1 million BTC threshold would be more than a symbolic milestone. It would indicate profound market maturity and long-term confidence in Bitcoin as a credible, institutional-grade asset. Such a large amount of Bitcoin locked up in ETFs effectively tightens supply in the open market, setting the stage for what could be a powerful catalyst for upward price pressure. As fewer coins remain available on exchanges, the market’s long-term equilibrium shifts—potentially raising Bitcoin’s floor price and reducing downside volatility.

The Trend Is Your Friend: Record-Breaking Inflows

The momentum is undeniable. November 2024 saw record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, surpassing $6.562 billion—over $1 billion more than the previous month’s figures. This wave of capital inflow dwarfs the rate of new Bitcoin creation. In November alone, just 13,500 BTC were mined, while more than 75,000 BTC flowed into ETFs—5.58 times the monthly supply. Such an imbalance underscores the scarcity dynamics now in play. When demand vastly outpaces supply, the natural market response is upward price pressure.

A Chart of Insatiable Demand

In a landmark moment, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recently outpaced the company’s own iShares Gold Trust in total fund assets. This moment was captured visually in the November issue of The Bitcoin Report, revealing a clear shift in investor preference. For decades, gold sat atop the throne of “safe haven” assets. Today, Bitcoin’s emerging role as “digital gold” is validated by ever-growing institutional allocations. The appetite for Bitcoin-backed ETF products has become relentless, as both seasoned investors and new entrants acknowledge Bitcoin’s potential to serve as a cornerstone in diversified portfolios.

Long-Term Holding and Supply Shock

One key characteristic of Bitcoin ETF inflows is the long-term nature of these investments. Institutional buyers and long-term allocators are less likely to trade frequently. Instead, they acquire Bitcoin through ETFs and hold it for extended periods—years, if not decades. As this pattern continues, the Bitcoin held in ETFs becomes essentially removed from circulation. The result is a steady drip of supply leaving exchanges, pushing the market toward a potential supply shock.

This trend is clearly illustrated by the latest data from Coinglass. Only about 2.25 million BTC currently remain on exchanges, highlighting a persistent decline in readily available supply. The chart below shows a divergence where Bitcoin’s price appreciation continues upward, while the exchange balances head down—an irrefutable signal of scarcity dynamics at work.

A Perfect Bitcoin Bull Storm and the March Toward $1 Million

These evolving dynamics have already propelled Bitcoin beyond the $100,000 milestone, and such achievements could soon feel like distant memories. As the market rationalizes a potential journey towards $1 million per BTC, what once seemed like a lofty dream now appears increasingly feasible. The “multiplier effect” in market psychology and price modeling suggests that once a large buyer comes into play, the ripple effects can cause explosive price surges. With ETFs continually accumulating, each major purchase may ignite a cascade of follow-on buying as investors fear missing out on the next leg up.

Incoming Trump Administration, the Bitcoin Act, and a U.S. Strategic Reserve

If current trends weren’t bullish enough, a new and potentially transformative scenario is brewing on the geopolitical stage. Incoming President-elect Donald Trump in 2025 has expressed support for the “Bitcoin Act,” a proposed bill directing the Treasury to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The plan involves selling part of the U.S. government’s gold reserves to acquire 1 million BTC—about 5% of all currently available Bitcoin—and hold it for 20 years. Such a move would signal a seismic shift in U.S. monetary policy, placing Bitcoin on par with (or even ahead of) gold as a cornerstone of national wealth storage.

With ETFs already driving scarcity, a U.S. governmental move to secure a large strategic Bitcoin reserve would magnify these effects. Consider that only 2.25 million BTC are available on exchanges today. Should the United States aim to acquire nearly half of that in a relatively short timeframe, the supply-demand imbalances would become extraordinary. This scenario could unleash a hyper-bullish mania, pushing Bitcoin’s price into previously unthinkable territory. At that point, even $1 million per BTC might be viewed as rational, a natural extension of the asset’s role in global finance and national strategic reserves.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Bullish Forces

From near-term ETF inflows surpassing new issuance fivefold, to longer-term structural shifts like a potential U.S. Bitcoin reserve, the fundamentals are stacking in Bitcoin’s favor. The growing scarcity, combined with the multiplier effect of large buyers entering the market, sets the stage for exponential price appreciation. What was once considered unrealistic—a Bitcoin price of $1 million—now sits within the realm of possibility, underscored by tangible data and powerful economic forces at play.

The journey from today’s levels to a new era of Bitcoin price discovery involves more than just speculation. It’s supported by a tightening supply, unyielding demand, rising institutional acceptance, and even the potential imprimatur of the world’s largest economy. Against this backdrop, surpassing 1 million BTC in ETF holdings before 2025 may be just the beginning of a much larger story—one that could reshape global finance and reimagine the very concept of a reserve asset.

For the latest insights on Bitcoin ETF data, monthly inflows, and evolving market dynamics, explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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The 4 Year Cycle

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is partly influenced by the scheduled halving events, which reduce the block reward miners receive by 50% every four years. This halving decreases the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, often creating supply-demand pressures that can push prices higher.

This can be clearly visualized by the Stock-to-Flow Model, which compares the existing BTC in circulation to its inflationary rate, and models a ‘fair-value’ based on comparable hard assets such as Gold and Silver.

Currently, we’re midway through this cycle, meaning we are potentially entering a period of exponential gains as the typical one year catch-up phase following the halving progresses.

A Look Back at 2022

Two years ago, Bitcoin faced a severe crash amid a series of corporate implosions. November 2022 marked the downfall of FTX, as rumors of insolvency triggered massive sell-offs. The domino effect was brutal, as other crypto institutions, such as BlockFi, 3AC, Celsius, and Voyager Digital, also went under.

Bitcoin’s price tumbled from around $20,000 to $15,000, mirroring the broader market panic and leaving investors worried about Bitcoin’s survival. However, true to form, Bitcoin rallied again, climbing back up fivefold from the 2022 lows. Investors who weathered the storm were rewarded, and this rebound supports the argument that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature remains intact.

Similar Sentiment

In addition to price patterns, investor sentiment also follows a predictable rhythm across each cycle. Analyzing the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), a metric showing unrealized gains and losses in the market, suggests that emotions like euphoria, fear, and capitulation repeat regularly. Bitcoin investors typically face intense feelings of fear or pessimism during each bear market, only to shift back toward optimism and euphoria as prices recover and rise. Currently, we’re once again entering the ‘Belief’ stage following our early cycle runup and subsequent consolidation.

The Global Liquidity Cycle

The global money supply and cyclical liquidity, as measured by Global M2 YoY vs BTC, has also followed a four-year cycle. For instance, M2 liquidity bottomed out in 2015 and 2018, just as Bitcoin hit lows. In 2022, M2 again hit a low point, perfectly aligning with Bitcoin’s bear market bottom. Following these periods of economic contraction, we see fiscal expansion across central banks and governments everywhere, which leads to more favorable conditions for Bitcoin price appreciation.

Familiar Patterns

Historical price analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is strikingly similar to previous cycles. From its lows, Bitcoin usually takes around 24-26 months to break past previous highs. In the last cycle, it took 26 months; in this cycle, Bitcoin’s price is on a similar upward trajectory after 24 months. Bitcoin has historically peaked about 35 months after its lows. If this pattern holds, we may see significant price increases through October 2025, after which another bear market could set in.

Following the anticipated peak, history suggests Bitcoin would enter a bear phase in 2026, lasting roughly one year until the next cycle begins anew. These patterns aren’t a guarantee but provide a roadmap that Bitcoin has adhered to in previous cycles. They offer a potential framework for investors to anticipate and adapt to the market.

Conclusion

Despite challenges, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has endured, largely due to its supply schedule, global liquidity, and investor psychology. As such, the four-year cycle remains a valuable tool for investors to interpret potential price movements in Bitcoin and our base case for the rest of this cycle. However, relying solely on this cycle could be shortsighted. By incorporating on-chain metrics, liquidity analysis, and real-time investor sentiment, data-driven approaches can help investors respond effectively to changing conditions.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The 4 Year Bitcoin Cycle – Half Way Done?

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EGRAG’s chart analysis shows that XRP almost touched the red rising support line four times. The pattern is similar to the price movements this currency experienced during the 2017 bull run as XRP popped from a value of $0.003 to a solid $3.31 in January 2018.The repeat of this pattern suggests that XRP may soon embark on a similar course.

#XRP 888.88% – The Secret Behind the 8’s :

Check out the chart below — it’s presenting a crucial pattern showing #XRP is echoing the chart behavior from 2017! Back then, the Red Ascending Support Line was tapped 4 times before sparking the legendary 2017 #BullRun. … pic.twitter.com/dXPeZisHmA

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) September 27, 2024

Breaking Through Key Resistance Levels

But what would make XRP reach such an explosion? According to EGRAG, the first big resistance stands at the all-time high of $3.31. He feels that when this price will be recaptured, it will lay the groundwork for a rally.

Interestingly, EGRAG implies that just 20% of the gains observed in 2017 could pave the way for a new rise, matching the important Fibonacci extension level of $31.

If it does break to $31, that will be a reflection of market sentiment at the moment and might even draw more investors in. Statistical data shows that in previous bull runs, price milestones greatly influenced market psychology. In fact, the rise from $0.003 to $3.31 was not only influenced by numbers but also because people saw XRP as something that would revolutionize the entire crypto space.

XRP Price Forecast

However, the recent estimates given by CoinCodex add more optimism to this view. The crypto price prediction site anticipated a possible increase in the price of XRP by 19.78% by the end of October 28, 2024, and it could peak high to $0.71033.

This is because the market sentiment is seen as bullish, with the Fear & Greed Index spotted at 64, representing investor greed. A greed rating sometimes causes a new increase in price, making this a quite attractive opportunity for the potential buyers to take action.

Throughout the month, XRP has recorded 16 out of 30 days in the green, which translates into a positive rate of 53%. Given that the price volatility is low at 3.73%, the above statistics paint a pretty rosy picture for traders eager to make a profit when there’s a breakout. Optimism is palpable and traders are focusing their hawkish eyes on critical resistance points that will probably act as important hurdles going forward.

Featured image from Fortune, chart from TradingView

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